Commercial transactions between the US and Asian countries, including Vietnam will have changed beyond desire muon.Tong US President-elect Donald Trump has expressed against the strategic partnership agreement transpacific Ocean (TPP) because of concerns about the jobs of US citizens will be affected by the domestic industry will be competitive by importing goods from countries in the TPP.
May trade between Asian countries with the United States in the near future changes are undesirable. Merchandise exports of Vietnam, which is key textiles and footwear from Vietnam to the United States could be hard hit
Since 2002, when Vietnam goods are not subject to US taxation discrimination (by force of BTA (Bilateral Trade Agreement), Vietnam textile and garment exports to the United States with a significant number thanks to the quality and reasonable price.
In 2002, the turnover of Vietnam's garment exports to the US reached $ 957 million compared to approximately $ 50 million / year of previous years.
In 2003, turnover continues rising to $ 1.9 billion and the United States Department of Commerce has asked Vietnam Textile Agreement negotiations with the quota mechanism to start limiting imports into Vietnam. Struggle quota negotiations between the Ministry of Commerce of the two countries trying times with the participation of many business support as well as the politicians of the two countries.
In 2004, the two countries signed the Agreement on Textiles with quotas nearly 100 code set for textiles (Cagt) that Vietnam has strong production. Since 2004 - 2006, Vietnam textile and garment exports to the United States grew at an average rate of only 7.5% / year due to restricted by quotas.
In May 6/2007, Vietnam officially joined the World Trade Organization (WTO), Vietnam textiles MFN tariffs and quotas were abolished as exports to the United States as the WTO members other.
The export turnover of Vietnam textiles into the United States in late 2008 reached $ 5.5 billion.
Shortly thereafter, the US government unilaterally imposes monitoring mode dumping for Vietnam garment.
Monitoring mode has caused psychological anxiety from US importers of fish and speed made garment imports Vietnam in 2009 decreased by 9.6% compared to the previous year.
After 02 years of application, this mode was much opposition from the Association of Importers and Retailers Association of the United States as well as from Vietnam, the US should have been annulled.
From 2010 onwards, Vietnam garment truly be treated equally when exported to the United States as other countries in the WTO and thus achieved an annual growth rate of about 10%.
In 2015, textile export turnover of Vietnam to the United States has reached about 11 billion US dollars, accounting for 8.7% market share of textile imports into the United States. Vietnam became a textile exporter to the United States the world's second largest, after China (with a turnover of 50.6 billion dollars, about 40% market share).
Since 2013, together with the TPP negotiations, foreign investment flows into Vietnam in general and in particular on textiles has been a significant growth. In 3 years, the growth of foreign direct investment in the textile industry reached $ 6.3 billion, equal to 80% of the previous 14 years.
Many large textile manufacturer from Korea, Hong Kong, Taiwan ... has put the project produced fabrics, yarns in Vietnam.
But the exciting atmosphere that has now become cold when the US presidential election with the 45 th of Donald Trump and obtained the day 12/19/2016, the US Electoral College victory confirmed Donald Trump is his 45th US President.
Therefore, the development prospects of Vietnam's garment will look like in the future when the US market is accounted for over 40% of the export market of this industry?
Actually, let's still too early to be able to clearly identify the foreign trade policy of the United States in the near future. Still have confidence that the US will not easily lose a leading role in many aspects of her for the Asia - Pacific region is important.
In particular, remember the new president-elect Donald Trump is a veteran entrepreneur and is a skilled negotiator. What Mr. Trump claims can begin for the new negotiations.
However, Vietnam's garment sector should also review their development strategies on a consistent basis with the fluctuations of the market in the near future.
In this spirit the ability garment exports of Vietnam to the United States is one of 3 possible following capabilities:
Another possibility is still TPP, but time and the content of it will be adjusted to change the direction of increasing regional integration conditions compared to what was signed. Prospects benefit from TPP brings Vietnam's garment sector will decrease. Growth rate of textile exports to the US will fall at least 50% compared to what was calculated earlier when TPP.
Two possibilities are no TPP and textile exports to Vietnam in the US market is still in compliance with current WTO rules. In this case, export growth will depend on the economic situation in the United States in the near future.
In the last 5 years, the US economy grew an average of about 2.5% / year, the unemployment rate declined annually by 4.9% and in 2016 reached the lowest rate in 10 years.
Index textiles consumption in the US market with an average annual growth of about 5% / year. In such conditions, the annual growth rate of Vietnam textile and garment exports to the United States is approximately 7-10%.
The economy of the United States would be like under the leadership of the government Trump? With hidden numbers also can not determine the export growth of this group with what has been achieved in the past 5 years.
Three possibilities are no TPP and authorities imposed Trump monitoring mode and anti-dumping duties on imports of textiles from Asian countries, including Vietnam.
In this condition certainly garment exports to the United States not only did not have growth, but also decline as the period of 2008-2009 when the US applied monitoring mode.
All 3 possibilities out there is uncertainty and the biggest possibility is dependent on the United States and all the partners of the United States, including Vietnam.
However, with the caution, we should choose the strategy of "pessimism on uncertainty" to set the direction of future operations.